The Doha Amendment ratification threshold by 144 Parties was reached on 2 October 2020 with the last-minute ratification by Nigeria. The Doha Amendment will thus enter into force on 31 December 2020, the last day of the second Commitment Period (CP2) of the Kyoto Protocol (KP). Doha Amendment severely limits trading of CP1 and CP2 units coming from ”hot air”. Perspectives' analysis shows that Kazakhstan, Iceland, Lichtenstein and Switzerland are likely to have deficits of Kyoto units at the end of CP2. While Kazakhstan never ratified the Doha Amendment, Iceland and Liechtenstein will fulfil their KP commitment together with the EU under the "bubbling" provision. Switzerland is thus the only Party that may have to purchase Kyoto units generating new demand of around 15 million tCO2e. Australia “escapes” a large deficit of units due to LULUCF accounting rules under the KP.
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